When Ariane 6 suffered a glitch on its first flight, the mishap felt strangely inevitable.
Nearly half of all rockets fail on their first launches. After a troubled development and four years of delays, Ariane 6 looked like a prime candidate to join the list.
The launcher was commissioned to create a European pathway into the cosmos. Since the retirement of Ariane 5 last July, the continent has had no independent access to space.
Thierry Breton, the EU’s commissioner for the internal market, described the problem as an “unprecedented crisis.” A failure to launch on Tuesday would have deepened the woes.
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Thankfully, the setback was only minor.
Ariane 6 successfully blasted off and deployed research satellites in orbit. The problem arose late in the flight, when the rocket’s final components failed to de-orbit. Nonetheless, the mission was declared a success.
“This was a historic moment,” said Lucía Linares, the European Space Agency’s (ESA) head of space transportation strategy. “It’s good for Europe. It’s also good for the world.”
Ariane 6 is now set for a first commercial launch in December. A further six are scheduled for next year and another eight in 2026.
Stéphane Israël, the CEO of Arianespace, which operates the rocket, said the glitch would have “no consequences on the next launches.”
His words brought welcome relief to European spacetech. The sector has big opportunities, but desperately requires new launch infrastructure.
The need for Ariane 6
Mark Boggett, the CEO of investment firm Seraphim Space, awaited the launch with bated breath. He believes Ariane 6 can provide a big boost to spacetech.
“The increased access will no doubt accelerate the pace of innovation and deployment of new space technologies in Europe,” he tells TNW.
Boggett has big ambitions. Through his company’s investments, he hopes to turn European startups into global sector leaders.
That plan had been stalled by Ariane 6’s lengthy delays. While they waited, companies relied on launch services in other regions — particularly the SpaceX service in the US.
The rocket can now remove that bottleneck. European spacetech no longer has to rely exclusively on foreign providers and has a path to strategic autonomy.
The new rocket can attract new business from domestic and international customers. Ariane 6 can also reduce the costs and wait times for startups planning to deploy payloads. So long, of course, as the service proves dependable and affordable.
Its first commercial launches can’t come soon enough. A new space race is underway, and Europe is at risk of falling behind.
Hopes and fears for European spacetech
The cosmos are becoming fertile land for business growth. McKinsey and the World Economic Forum expect the global space economy to rise from $630 billion in value last year to $1.8 trillion by 2035. “New space is a multi-decade growth market,” Boggett says.
Europe’s launcher crisis has obstructed access to that market. In 2023, the continent completed only three successful orbital launches — its lowest total since 2004. The US, meanwhile, had 109 — the most a single country has ever made.
“The US dominates commercial space launches, driven by private companies like SpaceX, which has revolutionised the industry with reusable rockets, significantly lowering costs and increasing launch frequency,” Jarkko Antila, the CEO of Finnish satellite startup Kuva Space, tells TNW.
Although the US leads the market, Chinese rockets are also enjoying growing success. Last year, the country completed 66 launches.
China has also emerged as a lucrative location for spacetech funding. According to new research from Seraphim, the country leads the world in private investment this year. Its total of $1.7bn edges the US figure of $1.6bn.
Last quarter, Chinese companies attracted the world’s two largest rounds. The biggest went to launch business Space Pioneer, which raised $208mn. Minospace, a satellite manufacturer, came second with $138mn.
In Europe, funding hasn’t grown at the same pace. In 2021, the continent’s investment dwarfed the whole of Asia. But those positions have now reversed.
Asia has also rapidly cut Europe’s edge on number of spacetech deals. In the last quarter of this year, the continent inked 150, while Asia signed 149.
Startups hope Ariane 6 sparks a new boom in European investment. Recent trends suggest that their wishes will come true.
Preparing for take-off
Boggett expects Ariane 6 to stimulate Europe’s space economy. “Proximity to launch facilities allows for more integrated testing and iteration of new technologies,” he says.
European companies can also reduce their transportation and logistical expenses. Additionally, the launch capability can strengthen collaboration between launch providers, satellite startups, and research institutions.
With the wider funding landscape recovering, startups are poised to take advantage of the opportunities.
Spacetech has just enjoyed four continuous quarters of investment recovery, according to new data from Seraphim. A cool $2.4bn was invested in the last quarter and deal volume reached all-time highs.
Europe’s biggest investments were a $100mn raise for Aalto, British spacecraft builder, and a $93mn round for ICEYE, a Finnish microsatellite manufacturer.
A growing group of VC firms are adding to the cash pool. Among them is Alpine Space Ventures, which plans big investments in Europe. Just today, the firm closed new fund of €170mn ($185mn).
Public investment is also rising. ESA’s budget for 2024 has grown to a record €7.79bn ($8.49bn) — 10% more than last year.
But any hopes of Ariane 6 outshining US launch giants appear misplaced. Antila of Kuva Space warns that the expendable system can’t compete with SpaceX’s reusable rockets.
“While the European Space Agency and Arianespace have developed the Ariane 6 for cost-effective launches, it lacks full reusability and is primarily limited to using the Guiana Space Centre in French Guiana,” he says.
Nonetheless, the rocket could reignite European spacetech. Boggett is confident that the vehicle will have a big impact.
“I’ve no doubt that having a local launch capability will further encourage innovation and drive the pace of development within Europe’s space sector,” he says.
The first commercial flights will provide a glimpse of the potential. At the very least, they’re giving European startups a new route into the cosmos.
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